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Modernization, weather variability, and vulnerability to famine
1University of Pisa, Italy.
Oxford Economic Papers
|December 15, 2011
Summary
Market economies can increase peasant vulnerability to famine, even with improved agricultural technology. Weather variability causes wage drops that outweigh gains, leading to food insecurity and historical famines.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Economics
- Environmental History
- Development Studies
Background:
- Transitioning rural economies to market-based systems can alter traditional coping mechanisms.
- Technological advancements in agriculture may not fully mitigate risks associated with environmental variability.
Observation:
- Weather variability significantly impacts peasant vulnerability to famine.
- Market economies can exacerbate these vulnerabilities, even with increased agricultural productivity.
Findings:
- Negative environmental shocks lead to wage decreases that exceed wage increases from positive shocks.
- This asymmetry results in slower grain accumulation during good seasons compared to depletion during bad seasons.
Implications:
- Understanding the interplay between environmental shocks and market integration is crucial for preventing famine.
- Historical famines, like those in 19th-century India, may be linked to these socio-economic and environmental interactions.
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