[In-hospital mortality in surgical patients. Predictive factors]

To analyze the value of patient and surgical variables as predictors of the survival until discharge of hospitalized surgical patients in a tertiary care hospital over the course of 1 year.

The hospital records for patients admitted for surgery between January 1 and December 31, 2007, were consulted to extract age, sex, ASA physical status classification of the patient, type of admission and surgery (scheduled or emergency), surgical department assigned, and date of discharge or exitus. The data were subjected to multivariate survival analysis using the Cox regression model.

A total of 4184 patients underwent surgery in 2007; the median (25th-75th percentile) patient age was 56 (39-71) years. In 77.5% of the cases (3244 patients) surgery was scheduled; 23.1% of those patients had been admitted by the emergency department. The ASA classification was 1 for 21.8%, 2 for 44.2%, 3 for 28%, and 4 for 6%. Of patients classified as ASA 1-3, a total of 33.2% were aged 65 years or older; in contrast, 78.7% of ASA 4 patients were in that age bracket. Eighty-nine (2.1%) surgical patients died. Cox regression survival analysis showed that variables related to a lower likelihood of survival to discharge were a physical status classification of ASA 4, age 65 years or older, and emergency surgery (P < .0005 for all comparisons).

Patients over the age of 65 years, in an ASA 4 anesthetic risk category, admitted on an emergency basis for emergency surgery were at higher risk of death. Greater vigilance in the perioperative care of patients with these risk factors is advisable in the interest of reducing mortality.