The sunk cost effect with pigeons: some determinants of decisions about persistence

The sunk cost effect occurs when an individual persists following an initial investment, even when persisting is costly in the long run. The current study used a laboratory model of the sunk cost effect. Two response alternatives were available: Pigeons could persist by responding on a schedule key with mixed ratio requirements, or escape by responding on a second key. In Experiment 1, mean response requirements for persistence and escape were varied across conditions. Pigeons persisted (committing the sunk cost error) when persisting increased the mean response requirement only slightly but not when persisting was sufficiently nonoptimal. Experiment 2 explored more systematically combinations of ratios and probabilities assigned to the schedule key. Persistence varied with the ratio of the mean global response requirements for persistence and escape. In Experiment 3, transitions between ratios were signaled. This reduced nonoptimal persistence, and produced some instances of a reverse sunk cost error--escaping when persistence was optimal. In Experiment 4, it was optimal to escape after the second-smallest ratio ever presented. Pigeons escaped at approximately the optimal juncture, especially in conditions with added signals. Overall, this series of experiments suggests that the sunk cost error may arise in part because persistence is the default behavioral strategy in situations where the contingencies for escape and persistence are insufficiently disparate and/or it is relatively difficult to discriminate when to escape. The study also demonstrates the utility of animal models of complex decision making situations.