Managing a national radiation oncologist workforce: a workforce planning model.

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Medical Workforce Planning
• Radiation Oncology

Background:

• Radiation oncology faces global workforce planning challenges.
• Accurate forecasting is crucial for meeting patient needs.

Purpose of the Study:

• Develop and validate a workforce model for radiation oncologists in Canada.
• Forecast supply and demand over 10+ years.
• Identify key influencing parameters and international applicability.

Main Methods:

• Created a forward calculation model using national data.
• Validated the model using a historical prospective approach.

Main Results:

• Model predicts a short-term surplus of trainees, followed by a deficit in 2020.
• Radiotherapy access, RO workload, retirement age, and training intake significantly impact supply-demand balance.
• Sensitivity analysis reveals potential for substantial shortages or surpluses.

Conclusions:

• Workforce planning for radiation oncology is feasible with projection models.
• Model outputs should guide policy on specialty growth and training.
• Methods are adaptable for radiation oncology in other countries and comparable specialties.