Relationships among race, education, criminal thinking, and recidivism: moderator and mediator effects

Moderator and mediator relationships linking variables from three different theoretical traditions-race (subcultural theory), education (life-course theory), and criminal thinking (social learning theory)-and recidivism were examined in 1,101 released male federal prison inmates. Preliminary regression analyses indicated that racial status (White, Black, Hispanic) moderated the relationship between criminal thinking, as measured by the General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS), and recidivism. Further analysis, however, revealed that it was not racial status, per se, that moderated the relationship between the PICTS and recidivism, but educational attainment. Whereas the PICTS was largely effective in predicting recidivism in inmates with 12 or more years of education, it was largely ineffective in predicting recidivism in inmates with fewer than 12 years of education. When education and the GCT score were compared as possible mediators of the race-recidivism relationship only the GCT successfully mediated this relationship. Sensitivity testing showed that the GCT mediating effect was moderately robust to violations of the sequential ignorability assumption on which causal mediation analysis rests. Moderator and mediator analyses are potentially important avenues through which theoretical constructs can be integrated and assessment strategies devised.