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Assessment of Mouse Judgment Bias through an Olfactory Digging Task
12:10

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Published on: March 4, 2022

Is optimism real?

Joseph P Simmons1, Cade Massey

  • 1The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 3730 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. jsimmo@wharton.upenn.edu

Journal of Experimental Psychology. General
|February 15, 2012
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Optimism is real, even with large financial incentives. Football fans showed biased predictions for their favorite teams, demonstrating genuine optimistic beliefs.

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Sports Psychology

Background:

  • Optimism is a cognitive bias where individuals expect favorable outcomes.
  • Previous research suggests optimism may be influenced by incentives.
  • Understanding the reality of optimism is crucial in decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if optimistic predictions persist despite significant financial incentives for accuracy.
  • To differentiate between genuine optimism and strategic forecasting ('cheap talk').

Main Methods:

  • National Football League (NFL) fans predicted game winners.
  • Participants were categorized as 'partisans' (predicting their favorite team's game) or 'neutrals' (predicting games of teams they were neutral about).
  • Incentives of $5 (small) or $50 (large) were offered for correct predictions.

Main Results:

  • Partisans were significantly more likely than neutrals to predict their favorite teams to win, even with large incentives.
  • Strong optimism was observed in participants who genuinely believed their predictions.
  • Optimistic bias remained evident despite substantial financial motivation for accuracy.

Conclusions:

  • Optimism is a real psychological phenomenon, not merely strategic communication.
  • Belief in one's predictions strengthens the manifestation of optimism.
  • This study provides empirical support for the existence of genuine optimism.