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Different methods elicit different belief distributions.

Beidi Hu1, Joseph P Simmons2

  • 1Marketing Group, University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

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This summary is machine-generated.

Researchers compared two methods for eliciting belief distributions: Distribution Builder and Sliders. Distribution Builder generally produced more accurate belief distributions, except in mixed cases with right-skewed data.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Eliciting detailed belief distributions offers more information than point estimates.
  • Researchers increasingly utilize methods to capture the full spectrum of beliefs.
  • Understanding how elicitation methods influence belief representation is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the accuracy of two popular belief distribution elicitation methods: Distribution Builder and Sliders.
  • To investigate the underlying reasons for differences in elicited belief distributions.
  • To provide practical recommendations for researchers seeking to accurately capture beliefs.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted 10 preregistered studies with a large sample size (N = 14,553).
  • Compared belief distributions elicited using Distribution Builder versus Sliders.
  • Assessed accuracy against both normative benchmarks and participants' self-reported beliefs.

Main Results:

  • Distribution Builder elicited more accurate belief distributions than Sliders across most conditions.
  • Accuracy differences were less pronounced and mixed when true distributions were right-skewed.
  • Analysis indicated participants using Sliders tended to overemphasize lower probability bins.

Conclusions:

  • Distribution Builder is recommended over Sliders for eliciting more accurate belief distributions, all else being equal.
  • Methodological choices in belief elicitation significantly impact the resulting distributions.
  • Further research should consider the cognitive processes underlying different elicitation techniques.