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People underestimate how much choice set size influences others' preferences. This occurs because decision-making attention often overlooks the number of options available, impacting predictions of liking.

Keywords:
choice set sizeinterpersonal predictionpreference

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Choice set size is a fundamental aspect of decision-making.
  • Larger choice sets increase the probability of selecting a preferred option.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether individuals accurately predict the impact of choice set size on others' preferences.
  • To identify the cognitive mechanisms behind potential underestimation of set size effects.

Main Methods:

  • Six preregistered experiments involving 10,092 U.S. adults.
  • Participants predicted others' liking for a chosen option under varying choice set sizes.
  • Interventions manipulated attention to set size during prediction tasks.

Main Results:

  • Participants consistently underestimated the influence of choice set size on others' liking for chosen options.
  • This underestimation was reduced when attention was explicitly drawn to set size.
  • Attentional focus on set size was enhanced by simultaneous consideration of multiple set sizes, framing decisions as rankings, or recalling set size before prediction.

Conclusions:

  • Individuals often fail to adequately consider the impact of choice set size when predicting others' preferences.
  • Cognitive attention plays a crucial role in moderating the perceived influence of choice set size.
  • Targeted interventions can improve the accuracy of predictions regarding the effects of choice set size on preferences.