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Has fertility declined in recent decades?
1Division of Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility, Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology, Marmara University School of Medicine, Istanbul, Turkey.
Current Opinion in Obstetrics & Gynecology
|March 8, 2012
Summary
Fertility rates are declining in Europe, influenced by social and behavioral factors. However, projections suggest a future rise in total fertility rates (TFR) to 1.5 or above in many countries.
Area of Science:
- Reproductive Health
- Demography
- Sociology
Background:
- Global concerns exist regarding potential declines in human fertility.
- Numerous studies have investigated fertility trends over the past decade.
- Factors influencing fertility rates are multifaceted, encompassing biological, behavioral, social, and environmental aspects.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review current trends in fertility rates.
- To assess the impact of various factors on fertility.
- To address concerns about a potential decline in human fecundity.
Main Methods:
- Literature review of published studies on fertility trends.
- Analysis of demographic data and projections.
- Examination of biological, behavioral, social, and environmental influences on reproduction.
Main Results:
- The average total fertility rate (TFR) in Europe has fallen to 1.5 children per woman.
- Perceived ideal family size is also decreasing.
- Partnership instability and changing societal values are identified as key factors impacting fertility.
Conclusions:
- Despite current declines and increased use of infertility treatments, a sustained long-term drop in human fecundity appears unsubstantiated.
- Demographic forecasting agencies predict a rise in TFR to 1.5 or higher in most countries.
- The downward trend in fecundity is not supported by current projections, suggesting potential recovery.
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