Pre-residency publication rate strongly predicts future academic radiology potential

Radiology resident selection committees often favor candidates with strong academic potential. The aim of this study was to determine if preresidency academic productivity of current radiologists was predictive of subsequent of future academic performance.

The academic productivity of all radiology residents trained between 1975 and 2005 at the authors' institution was assessed through identification of their publication histories, National Institutes of Health funding statuses, and Hirsch indexes (h-indexes). These metrics were correlated with numbers of publications generated prior to beginning radiology residency and grouped accordingly (group 0, none prior to residency; group 1, one publication; and group 2, more than one publication). Academic productivity metrics of the different groups were compared using one-way analysis of variance and χ(2) analysis. Spearman's ρ coefficient was used to evaluate correlations between the number of preresidency publications and subsequent productivity.

A cohort of 269 residents was included in this study. Group 0 comprised 182 of the 269 residents (68%), while groups 1 and 2 comprised 27 (10%) and 60 (22%) residents, respectively. Rates of subsequent publication, mean h-index, and National Institutes of Health funding statuses were significantly higher in group 2 compared to both groups 0 and 1 (P < .0001 for each metric). Preresidency publication volume was significantly correlated with future publication performance (ρ = 0.3977, P < .0001), mean h-index (ρ = 0.3086, P < .0001), and National Institutes of Health funding status (ρ = 0.4916, P < .0001).

Radiology residency candidates with multiple publications are more likely to achieve future academic success compared to candidates with one or zero publications.