[Health care expenditures and the aging population]

The impact of a longer life on future health care expenditures will be quite moderate because of the high costs of dying and the compression of mortality in old age. If not age per se but proximity to death determines the bulk of expenditures, a shift in the mortality risk to higher ages will not significantly affect lifetime health care expenditures, as death occurs only once in every life. A calculation of the demographic effect on health care expenditures in Germany up until 2050 that explicitly accounts for costs in the last years of life leads to a significantly lower demographic impact on per-capita expenditures than a calculation based on crude age-specific health expenditures.