On protecting the inexperienced reader from Chernobyl myths

The health and environmental consequences of the Chernobyl accident continue to attract the attention of experts, decision-makers and the general public, and now these consequences have been given added relevance by the similar accident in 2011 at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant (NPP) in Japan. Expert analysis of radiation levels and effects has been conducted by international bodies--UNSCEAR in 2008 and the Chernobyl Forum during 2003-5. At the same time, three Russian and Belarusian scientists, Yablokov, Nesterenko and Nesterenko (2009 Chernobyl. Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment (New York: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences)) published both in Russian and English a substantial review of the consequences of Chernobyl based mostly on Russian-language papers. In this book, they suggested a departure from analytical epidemiological studies in favour of ecological ones. This erroneous approach resulted in the overestimation of the number of accident victims by more than 800 000 deaths during 1987-2004. This paper investigates the mistakes in methodology made by Yablokov et al and concludes that these errors led to a clear exaggeration of radiation-induced health effects. Should similar mistakes be made following the 2011 accident at Fukushima-1 NPP this could lead quite unnecessarily to a panic reaction by the public about possible health effects and to erroneous decisions by the authorities in Japan.