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Election turnout statistics in many countries: similarities, differences, and a diffusive field model for
Christian Borghesi1, Jean-Claude Raynal, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
1Centre d'Analyse et de Mathématique Sociales, CNRS/EHESS, Paris, France.
Plos One
|May 23, 2012
Summary
Voter turnout rates show similar spatial correlation patterns across 11 countries, decaying logarithmically with distance. A model explains this by individual decisions influenced by personal, local, and long-range factors, revealing country-specific behaviors and herding.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Sociology
- Statistical Physics
Background:
- Previous studies identified specific turnout rate patterns in French elections.
- Understanding voter turnout dynamics is crucial for democratic processes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the generalizability of French election turnout patterns across diverse countries.
- To model the factors influencing individual voter turnout decisions and spatial correlations.
Main Methods:
- Statistical analysis of turnout rate data from 77 elections in 11 countries.
- Development and validation of a quantitative decision model incorporating idiosyncratic, local, and long-range influences.
- Comparative analysis of local heterogeneities and conformity propensities across nations.
Main Results:
- Spatial correlation of voter turnout rates consistently decays logarithmically with distance across all studied countries.
- A decision model accurately reproduces these spatial patterns, attributing them to a combination of personal, city-specific, and diffuse long-range influences.
- Significant variations observed in local heterogeneities and cultural norm conformity among different countries.
- Evidence of individual-level decision herding identified in some, but not all, countries.
Conclusions:
- The logarithmic decay of spatial turnout correlation is a general phenomenon, not limited to French elections.
- Voter decision-making is shaped by a complex interplay of individual, local, and broader spatial factors.
- Cross-country differences in turnout patterns highlight the impact of local context and social dynamics on electoral behavior.
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