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Critical fragility in sociotechnical systems.

José Moran1,2,3, Frank P Pijpers4,5, Utz Weitzel6,7,8

  • 1Macrocosm Inc, Brooklyn, NY 11218.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|February 25, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Sociotechnical systems optimized for efficiency risk critical fragility. Pushing timeliness to its limit makes systems vulnerable to collapse from minor disruptions, impacting economic volatility.

Keywords:
complex systemscriticalityfragilitysociotechnical systems

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Area of Science:

  • Systems Science
  • Economics
  • Operations Research

Background:

  • Sociotechnical systems integrate human and technological elements for societal functions.
  • Timeliness (availability at the right place and time) is a critical operational standard.
  • Competitive pressures often lead to myopic optimization of efficiency, risking system fragility.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To highlight the underappreciated concept of timeliness in sociotechnical systems.
  • To identify the critical point where optimizing timeliness leads to systemic fragility.
  • To explain the excess volatility puzzle in economics and inform system management.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a stylized model for operational delays.
  • Analysis of system behavior at the limit of operational performance for timeliness.
  • Investigation of firm-to-firm production networks as a case study.

Main Results:

  • Optimizing timeliness to its operational limit creates critical fragility, akin to operating at the "edge of a cliff."
  • Small perturbations can trigger systemic collapse when systems are at this critical point.
  • Proximity to critical fragility is key to understanding economic excess volatility.

Conclusions:

  • Critical fragility is an inherent risk in highly optimized sociotechnical systems.
  • Managing the trade-off between efficiency and robustness is crucial for system stability.
  • Understanding critical fragility is essential for resilient sociotechnical system design and economic stability.