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Improving risk stratification in patients with chest pain: the Erlanger HEARTS3 score
Francis M Fesmire1, Erik J Martin, Yu Cao
1Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Tennessee College of Medicine Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN 37403, USA. francis.fesmire@erlanger.org
Insights
The HEARTS(3) score improves acute coronary syndrome (ACS) prediction in chest pain patients by refining the HEART score with additional variables and precise weighting. This new score offers more reliable risk stratification for 30-day ACS events.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Emergency Medicine
- Clinical Risk Stratification
Background:
- The HEART score aids in predicting acute coronary syndromes (ACS) using patient history, ECG, age, risk factors, and troponin.
- Existing HEART score elements may not be optimally weighted for accurate risk assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce and evaluate the HEARTS(3) score, an enhanced risk stratification tool for chest pain patients.
- To improve the prediction of 30-day ACS by incorporating Sex, Serial 2-hour ECG, and Serial 2-hour delta troponin.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 2148 patients with non-ST-segment elevation chest pain.
- Likelihood ratio analysis to determine optimal weighting for HEARTS(3) score components.
- Primary outcomes: 30-day ACS and myocardial infarction.
Main Results:
- The HEARTS(3) score demonstrated superior performance compared to the HEART score in predicting myocardial infarction (AUC 0.958 vs 0.825) and 30-day ACS (AUC 0.901 vs 0.813).
- Likelihood ratio analysis identified significant discrepancies in the weighting of shared HEART and HEARTS(3) score elements.
Conclusions:
- The HEARTS(3) score reliably risk stratifies patients presenting with chest pain for 30-day ACS.
- Further prospective studies are recommended to validate the HEARTS(3) score as a clinical decision support tool for treatment and disposition.
Background:
The HEART score uses elements from patient History, Electrocardiogram, Age, Risk Factors, and Troponin to obtain a risk score on a 0- to 10-point scale for predicting acute coronary syndromes (ACS). This investigation seeks to improve on the HEART score by proposing the HEARTS(3) score, which uses likelihood ratio analysis to give appropriate weight to the individual elements of the HEART score as well as incorporating 3 additional "S" variables: Sex, Serial 2-hour electrocardiogram, and Serial 2-hour delta troponin during the initial emergency department valuation.
Methods:
This is a retrospective analysis of a prospectively acquired database consisting of 2148 consecutive patients with non-ST-segment elevation chest pain. Interval analysis of likelihood ratios was performed to determine appropriate weighting of the individual elements of the HEART(3) score. Primary outcomes were 30-day ACS and myocardial infarction.
Results:
There were 315 patients with 30-day ACS and 1833 patients without ACS. Likelihood ratio analysis revealed significant discrepancies in weight of the 5 individual elements shared by the HEART and HEARTS(3) score. The HEARTS(3) score outperformed the HEART score as determined by comparison of areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for myocardial infarction (0.958 vs 0.825; 95% confidence interval difference in areas, 0.105-0.161) and for 30-day ACS (0.901 vs 0.813; 95% confidence interval difference in areas, 0.064-0.110).
Conclusion:
The HEARTS(3) score reliably risk stratifies patients with chest pain for 30-day ACS. Prospective studies need to be performed to determine if implementation of this score as a decision support tool can guide treatment and disposition decisions in the management of patients with chest pain.
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