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Predicting mortality with biomarkers: a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans
Luis Rosero-Bixby1, William H Dow
1University of California at Berkeley, School of Public Health, 239 University Hall, #7360, Berkeley, CA, 94720-7360, USA. wdow@berkeley.edu.
Population Health Metrics
|June 15, 2012
Summary
Simple physical tests and specific blood biomarkers like C-reactive protein (CRP) predict mortality in elderly populations. High blood pressure and cholesterol showed little predictive value, contrary to common assumptions.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Epidemiology
- Biomarker Research
Background:
- Limited data exists on adult health and mortality in non-high-income countries.
- Representative population datasets with biomarker data are scarce.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the prognostic value of biomarkers for total and cardiovascular mortality in elderly Costa Ricans.
- To determine how biomarkers mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality.
Main Methods:
- Prospective, population-based study of a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans.
- Baseline interviews in 2005 with mortality follow-up through December 2010.
- Analysis included 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths after data cleaning.
Main Results:
- Biomarkers significantly predict mortality beyond demographics and self-reported health.
- Physical tests (handgrip, peak flow, walking speed) were strong predictors.
- Blood biomarkers C-reactive protein (CRP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) also predicted mortality.
- High blood pressure and cholesterol showed minimal predictive power.
Conclusions:
- Blood markers (CRP, HbA1c, DHEAS) and functional indicators (handgrip, walking, peak flow) identify vulnerable elderly.
- Further research is needed to understand why BP and cholesterol levels have low predictive value for mortality in this population.
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