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Hormesis for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5).

Louis Anthony Tony Cox¹

¹Cox Associates, University of Colorado.

Dose-Response : a Publication of International Hormesis Society

|June 29, 2012

Summary

The hypothesis of hormesis suggests low-dose exposures to harmful substances may reduce health risks. New analysis indicates fine particulate matter (PM2.5) health benefits may be overestimated due to a potentially J-shaped, not linear, dose-response relationship.

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Area of Science:

Environmental Health
Toxicology
Public Policy

Background:

The U.S. EPA estimated trillions in health benefits from reducing ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations.
This estimation relies on an assumed linear relationship between PM2.5 exposure and mortality risk.
The principle of hormesis suggests low-level exposures can elicit beneficial adaptive responses.

Purpose of the Study:

To critically evaluate the assumed linear concentration-response relationship for PM2.5 and mortality.
To explore the implications of a potentially J-shaped dose-response curve for PM2.5 health policy.
To assess the accuracy of current regulatory benefit estimations for PM2.5 reduction.

Main Methods:

Review of empirical data on PM2.5 exposure and associated mortality risks.

Keywords:

Clean Air Act PM2.5 Weibull uncertainty distribution air pollution health effects hormesis risk-cost-benefit analysis uncertainty analysis

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Analysis of inflammatory responses as precursors to PM2.5-related health outcomes.

Examination of the concentration-response function shape at and below current ambient levels.

Main Results:

Evidence suggests the concentration-response relationship for PM2.5 and mortality may be J-shaped, not linear.
A J-shaped curve implies that current regulatory benefit calculations may be significantly overestimated.
The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments might not have yielded the projected health benefits.

Conclusions:

The assumption of a linear PM2.5-mortality relationship is potentially flawed.
Further research is crucial to accurately determine the PM2.5 concentration-response function shape.
Current policies aiming for further PM2.5 reduction may not yield expected health benefits and could be counterproductive.