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You name it--memory and delay govern first name dynamics.

David A Kessler1, Yosi E Maruvka, Jøergen Ouren

  • 1Department of Physics, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan, Israel.

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|June 30, 2012
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Baby name trends are driven by deterministic forces, not random chance. This study reveals predictable patterns in name popularity, similar to an infection process.

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Area of Science:

  • Sociolinguistics
  • Cultural Dynamics
  • Computational Social Science

Background:

  • The evolution of first names over time offers insights into social dynamics and cultural preferences.
  • Understanding name adoption and abandonment patterns can reveal underlying societal trends.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the deterministic versus stochastic forces governing baby name popularity.
  • To model the dynamics of name adoption and abandonment.
  • To explore the role of exogenous events and demographic noise in name trends.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of historical baby name data to identify patterns.
  • Development of a model to simulate name dynamics.
  • Statistical analysis to differentiate between deterministic and stochastic influences.

Main Results:

  • Baby name dynamics are primarily governed by deterministic forces, contrary to expectations of pure drift.
  • Year-to-year fluctuations are largely attributable to demographic noise rather than external events.
  • A model simulating an 'infection' process with delay and memory accurately reflects name rise and fall.

Conclusions:

  • The popularity of baby names follows predictable, deterministic trends.
  • The 'infection' model provides a robust framework for understanding name dynamics.
  • Symmetry in adoption and abandonment speeds is an emergent property of the proposed model.