Risk assessment: the emperor's new clothes?

Area of Science:

• Child Welfare Studies
• Forensic Psychology
• Risk Management

Background:

• Child protection agencies widely employ risk assessment procedures.
• These assessments aim to identify and mitigate risks of child abuse and neglect.
• The effectiveness of current instruments in predicting future harm is a critical concern.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review existing risk assessment procedures and instruments used in child protection.
• To critically evaluate the methodological strengths and limitations of these assessment tools.
• To propose improvements for decision-making in child protection investigations.

Main Methods:

• Systematic literature review of risk assessment instruments in child protection.
• Critical analysis of methodological deficiencies in current assessment tools.
• Qualitative synthesis of expert recommendations for risk assessment protocols.

Main Results:

• Current risk assessment instruments possess significant methodological deficiencies.
• These deficiencies limit the predictive validity of instruments for future child abuse or neglect.
• Existing tools may not reliably identify children at high risk.

Conclusions:

• While risk assessment is conceptually valuable, current instruments require substantial improvement.
• Methodological enhancements are needed to increase the accuracy and utility of risk assessment tools.
• Revised decision-making frameworks are proposed for child protection investigations to enhance safety and efficacy.