Related Experiment Videos
Eliciting principles of hazard identification from experts.
F R Jelovsek1, D R Mattison, J F Young
1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock 72205.
Teratology
|November 1, 1990
Summary
Developmental toxicology experts established consensus rules for identifying pregnancy hazards. These rules guide evaluating scientific evidence on compound safety, aiding hazard identification and decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Developmental Toxicology
- Risk Assessment
- Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
Background:
- Determining developmental hazards during pregnancy is complex.
- Expert judgment plays a crucial role in assessing chemical risks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To elicit and codify the rules-of-thumb used by developmental toxicology experts.
- To establish consensus on principles for identifying developmental hazards.
Main Methods:
- Interviews with national experts in developmental toxicology.
- Consensus-building activities to refine elicited rules.
- Categorization of rules by impact on evidence confidence and importance.
Main Results:
- Consensus was reached on 71 rules and partial consensus on 24 additional rules.
- Rules were categorized based on evidence evaluation (confidence, weight) and topical focus (compound characteristics, animal studies, human reports).
Conclusions:
- Expert systems require multiple experts for robust decision-making.
- Significant effort is dedicated to evaluating evidence certainty in hazard identification.
- Understanding expert handling of uncertainty is critical for AI development.
- Interview-based knowledge elicitation is a viable method for medical decision-making support.