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Published on: July 4, 2013
Endogeneity in prison risk classification
Lauren O'Neill Shermer1, David M Bierie, Amber Stock
1Widener University, Chester, PA, USA.
Summary
Prison security designation tools may overestimate inmate risk due to facility-level contamination. This study reveals that prison environments, not just inmate characteristics, influence misconduct rates, impacting risk assessment accuracy.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Penal System Analysis
- Correctional Policy Research
Background:
- Security designation tools are standard in US prisons to objectively assess inmate risk and assign them to appropriate security levels.
- Current validation methods rely on correlating inmate characteristics with subsequent misconduct, potentially overlooking environmental influences.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate potential endogeneity bias in prison security designation tools.
- To determine if prison environments themselves contribute to inmate misconduct, thereby affecting the perceived accuracy of risk assessment tools.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of an entry cohort across over 100 Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) facilities.
- Exploitation of variations in classification scores within prisons due to non-risk-related overrides.
- Estimation using pooled models of misconduct and prison-fixed effects specifications.
Main Results:
- A significant portion of the predictive accuracy attributed to the BOP's risk designation tool was found to be a result of facility-level contamination.
- The study identified endogeneity, where prison environments influenced misconduct rates independently of initial risk assessments.
Conclusions:
- The accuracy of current prison security designation tools may be overestimated due to unaddressed endogeneity.
- Correctional policies should account for facility-level influences on inmate behavior to improve risk assessment and management.
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