Estimation of alcohol attributable fraction of mortality in Russia

Accumulated research evidence suggests that alcohol is a major contributor to premature deaths toll in Russia. The aim of the present study was to estimate the premature adult mortality attributable to alcohol abuse in Russia on the basis of aggregate-level data of all-cause mortality and alcohol consumption. With this purpose age-standardized sex-specific male and female all-cause mortality data for the period 1980-2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means ARIMA time series analysis. As a result alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female all-cause mortality rates: a 1 liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 3.9% increase in the male mortality rate and in 2.4% increase in female mortality rate. The results of the analysis also suggest that 41.1% of all male deaths and 27.8% female deaths in Russia could be attributed to alcohol. We can conclude that alcohol is a major contributor to the high mortality rate in Russian Federation. Therefore prevention of alcohol-attributable harm should be a major public health priority in Russia.