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Updated: May 19, 2026

Chemoselective Preparation of 1-Iodoalkynes, 1,2-Diiodoalkenes, and 1,1,2-Triiodoalkenes Based on the Oxidative Iodination of Terminal Alkynes
Published on: September 12, 2018
"Black Swan events" in organic synthesis
1Chemical Development Department, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Cambridge, USA. william_nugent@vrtx.com
Research areas experiencing rapid growth often follow shifts in conventional wisdom, with earlier overlooked findings acting as "Black Swan" events. This phenomenon is illustrated by the surge in homogeneous gold catalysis research.
Area of Science:
- Catalysis
- Chemistry
- Research Trends
Background:
- Scientific fields can undergo rapid expansion, often termed "going viral".
- Such viral growth frequently coincides with a paradigm shift in established scientific understanding.
- Overlooked or disregarded prior research, termed "Black Swan" events, can precede these shifts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To illustrate the concept of research areas "going viral".
- To highlight the role of "Black Swan" events as antecedents to paradigm shifts in science.
- To showcase homogeneous gold catalysis as a case study for viral research trends.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of research publication trends.
- Identification of seminal papers and citation networks.
- Retrospective review of the scientific literature preceding a research boom.
Main Results:
- Homogeneous gold catalysis research has experienced a significant and rapid increase in activity.
- Earlier, less recognized studies in gold catalysis served as precursors to its recent surge.
- The "viral" growth in this area aligns with a reevaluation of established catalytic principles.
Conclusions:
- The "going viral" phenomenon in research is often preceded by "Black Swan" events.
- Homogeneous gold catalysis provides a clear example of this trend.
- Understanding these dynamics can help predict and interpret major shifts in scientific fields.
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