A systems model of training responses and its relationship to hormonal responses in elite weight-lifters

A systems model, providing an estimation of fatigue and fitness levels was applied to a 1-year training period of six elite weight-lifters. The model parameters were individually determined by fitting the predicted performance (calculated as the difference between fitness and fatigue) to the actual one. The purpose of this study was to validate the systems model by comparing the estimated levels of fatigue and fitness with biological parameters external to the model calculation. The predicted and the actual performances were significantly correlated in each subject. The calculated fitness and fatigue levels were related to serum testosterone concentration, testosterone: cortisol and testosterone: sex hormone binding globulin ratios. The best results were obtained by the comparison between fitness and testosterone levels, which varied in parallel in each subject. In two subjects this correlation was significant (r = 0.91, P less than 0.05, and r = 0.92, P less than 0.01). The fitness changes calculated in each subject between the 15th and the 51st weeks of training were significantly correlated with the changes in serum testosterone concentration measured in the same period (r = 0.99, P less than 0.001). For the whole group testosterone and fitness variations were also significantly intercorrelated (r = 0.73, P less than 0.001). Correlations, less homogeneous and less significant, were calculated also for other hormones and ratios. These results suggest that (1) the relationships between training and performance can be described by the systems model, (2) the estimated index of fitness has a physiological meaning. The fatigue index remains to be clarified.