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Relevance of the type III error in epidemiological maps
Harald Heinzl1, Thomas Waldhoer
1Center for Medical Statistics, Informatics, and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Background:
A type III error arises from a two-sided test, when one side is erroneously favoured although the true effect actually resides on the other side. The relevance of this grave error in decision-making is studied for epidemiological maps.
Results:
Theoretical considerations confirm that a type III error may be large for regions with small numbers of expected cases even when no spatial smoothing has been performed. A simulation study based on infant mortality data in Austria reveals that spatial smoothing may additionally increase the risk of type III errors.
Conclusions:
The occurrence of a type III error should be taken into account when interpreting results presented in epidemiological maps, particularly with regard to sparsely populated regions and spatial smoothing.
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