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Malthusian dynamics in a diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650-1881
1UCD School of Economics, University College Dublin, Belfield, Ireland. alan.fernihough@gmail.com
Demography
|September 21, 2012
Summary
This study of Northern Italy from 1650-1881 supports Malthusian theory, showing population growth lowered living standards and affected vital rates. However, weak homeostasis and no evidence of Boserupian effects were found.
Area of Science:
- Economic History
- Demography
- Sociology
Background:
- Malthusian theory is debated for preindustrial economies.
- Previous research focused on England, leaving other regions understudied.
Observation:
- Analysis of real wage and vital rate data from Northern Italy (1650-1881).
- Empirical methodology based on a Malthusian model with endogenous population, wages, and vital rates.
Findings:
- Strong evidence supports a Malthusian economy in Northern Italy.
- Population growth correlated with decreased living standards, impacting vital rates.
- The system exhibited weak homeostasis, with limited self-correction.
- No evidence of Boserupian effects: population increases did not drive technological progress.
Implications:
- Challenges the universality of Malthusian theory's applicability.
- Highlights regional variations in preindustrial economic and demographic dynamics.
- Suggests limited impact of population pressure on innovation in this context.
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