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The 9th grade shock and the high school dropout crisis
Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej1, Charles Hirschman, Joseph Willhoft
1Department of Sociology and Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, United States.
Social Science Research
|September 29, 2012
Summary
National surveys overestimate high school graduation rates. Individual student data reveal high school attrition is as common as graduation, driven by a "9th grade shock" and disadvantaged backgrounds.
Area of Science:
- Educational research
- Sociology
- Public policy
Background:
- National surveys often overestimate high school graduation rates compared to administrative records.
- Aggregate administrative data lack individual-level detail and struggle with transfer tracking.
- Accurate measurement of high school attrition is crucial for understanding educational challenges.
Purpose of the Study:
- To accurately track individual student high school attrition and on-time graduation using linked administrative records.
- To identify key mechanisms contributing to high school attrition.
- To provide a more precise understanding of educational attainment beyond survey data.
Main Methods:
- Utilized linked, individual-level administrative records from a large West Coast metropolitan school district.
- Tracked student enrollment, retention, and graduation patterns over time.
- Adjusted for omissions of out-of-district transfers to refine attrition estimates.
Main Results:
- High school attrition, measured by retention and attrition, is nearly as prevalent as on-time graduation.
- Disadvantaged background is a significant risk factor for attrition.
- A notable decline in academic performance in 9th grade (the "9th grade shock") is a primary driver of attrition.
Conclusions:
- Individual-level administrative data provide a more accurate picture of high school completion than survey data.
- The
- 9th grade shock
- represents a critical intervention point for addressing high school attrition.
- Addressing attrition requires tackling both background disadvantages and academic performance declines in early high school years.
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