Interpreting the relationship between age of menarche and prepubertal training

It has been concluded from studies using retrospective data and thus quasi-experimental designs that menarche may be delayed by prepubertal athletic training. Furthermore, a causal relationship between the age of initiation of training (AIT) and the age of menarche (AOM) has been proposed. To investigate the possibility that these conclusions were erroneous and based upon analytical artifact, a computer program was used to generate random and independent AOM and AIT for a population of 30,000 "athletes". The generated mean AOM (means = 13.4 yr) and mean AIT (means = 10.0 yr) were similar to those reported in recent literature. The sampling procedure was designed such that no relationship existed between AOM and AIT in these hypothetical athletes (r = 0.002). When two subgroups (pre- or post-menarcheal training) were compared, the pre-training group was found to have a significantly later AOM than the post-trained group (means = 13.9 yr vs means = 11.7 yr; P less than 0.05). Significant correlations were found for each subgroup between AOM and AIT (r = 0.46 and 0.40 pre- and post-menarcheal training, respectively), similar to values previously reported. In conclusion, the sampling procedures performed in the present study and in similar data sets result in biased estimates of the statistical parameters. This bias accounts for the reported relationship between AOM and AIT derived using this type of quasi-experimental design, and therefore it would appear appropriate to state that the age of menarche in athletes is "later" rather than "delayed".