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Mapping the spread of methamphetamine abuse in California from 1995 to 2008

Paul J Gruenewald1, William R Ponicki, Lillian G Remer

  • 1Prevention Research Center, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Berkeley, CA 94704, USA. paul@prev.org

American Journal of Public Health
|October 20, 2012
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Methamphetamine abuse and dependence (MA) in California grew exponentially, exhibiting characteristics of a drug epidemic. This epidemic spread rapidly, particularly among low-income White and Hispanic populations outside urban centers.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Substance Abuse Research

Background:

  • Methamphetamine abuse and dependence (MA) incidence in California hospitals surged 13-fold between 1983 and 2008.
  • The rapid increase prompted an investigation into whether this trend represented a drug epidemic.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess if the escalating incidence of methamphetamine abuse and dependence (MA) in California aligns with the characteristics of a drug epidemic.
  • To identify demographic and environmental factors associated with the spatial spread of MA.

Main Methods:

  • Geocoding of MA hospital discharges to residential zip codes from 1995-2008.
  • Utilizing Bayesian Poisson conditional autoregressive models to analyze relationships between MA incidence, population, and environmental factors.
  • Accounting for small area effects, spatial misalignment, and assessing contagion between geographic areas.

Main Results:

  • MA incidence demonstrated exponential growth in three distinct phases, interspersed with legislative interventions targeting precursor access.
  • Annual MA growth averaged 17% from 1999 to 2008.
  • Higher MA rates were observed in areas with significant low-income White and Hispanic populations, smaller households, and robust highway connectivity. Spatial autocorrelation explained approximately 80% of the model's error variance.

Conclusions:

  • From 1995 to 2008, methamphetamine abuse and dependence (MA) in California displayed epidemic-like growth and spatial diffusion patterns.
  • The epidemic spread most rapidly through low-income White and Hispanic communities situated in non-urbanized regions.

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