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Platinum availability for future automotive technologies.

Elisa Alonso¹, Frank R Field, Randolph E Kirchain

¹Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139-4307, USA.

Environmental Science & Technology

|October 24, 2012

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Future automotive demand for platinum, driven by fuel cell vehicles, may strain supply by 2050. While current reserves are adequate, declining ore grades and concentrated mining pose risks to platinum availability.

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Area of Science:

Materials Science
Environmental Science
Economics

Background:

Platinum is a critical catalyst in automotive catalytic converters and future fuel cells.
The automotive industry consumed approximately 40% of mined platinum between 2005 and 2010.
Shifts towards new automotive technologies and industry growth could significantly impact platinum demand.

Purpose of the Study:

To evaluate potential risks to platinum availability.
To analyze platinum market characteristics, including geophysical constraints, institutional efficiency, and market responsiveness.
To assess platinum demand under scenarios meeting greenhouse gas stabilization goals.

Main Methods:

Market analysis of platinum's geophysical constraints.
Evaluation of institutional efficiency in the platinum market.
Assessment of the dynamic responsiveness of platinum supply.
Modeling platinum demand for an automotive fleet meeting specific greenhouse gas targets.

Main Results:

Meeting greenhouse gas stabilization goals by 2025 requires platinum supply growth rates within 10% of historical levels.
Fuel cell vehicle sales growth will significantly constrain platinum supply by 2050.
Current platinum reserves are sufficient for projected demand, but ore grade decline and geographic supply concentration are risks.

Conclusions:

Platinum availability for future automotive applications faces potential constraints.
Declining ore grades and concentrated mining pose significant risks to end-users.
Strategic planning is necessary to ensure stable platinum supply for emerging automotive technologies.