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Published on: March 27, 2018
Identification of very high risk octogenarians undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery: results of a multicenter
Stefano Rosato1, Fausto Biancari, Alice Maraschini
1National Centre of Epidemiology, Surveillance and Health Promotion, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Via Giano della Bella, 34, 00161, Rome, Italy, stefano.rosato@iss.it.
Insights
Elderly patients (≥80 years) undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) face high operative risks. Emergency surgery, unstable hemodynamics, and low ejection fraction independently predict 30-day mortality in this population.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Cardiac Surgery
- Geriatric Medicine
Background:
- Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients aged 80 years and older is associated with excellent long-term survival but carries a significant risk of immediate postoperative mortality.
- Identifying factors contributing to very high operative risk in this specific, fragile patient demographic is crucial for improving outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality in patients aged 80 years and older undergoing isolated CABG.
- To analyze institutional variations in the proportion and operative risk of elderly patients undergoing CABG.
Main Methods:
- A multicenter study involving 2,246 patients aged ≥80 years who underwent isolated CABG across 68 Italian hospitals.
- Logistic regression and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis were employed to identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality.
- Analysis of institutional variations in patient demographics and operative risk scores (logistic EuroSCORE).
Main Results:
- The overall 30-day mortality rate for patients aged ≥80 years was 6.5%.
- Independent predictors of 30-day mortality included emergency procedure, low left ventricular ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamics, and use of nitrates infusion upon arrival.
- CART analysis revealed a 32.60% 30-day mortality for emergency CABG with unstable hemodynamics and 20.0% for non-emergency cases with nitrates and LVEF <30%.
Conclusions:
- The proportion of elderly patients undergoing CABG and their associated operative risks vary significantly among institutions.
- Emergency surgery, unstable hemodynamics, nitrates use, and low ejection fraction identify a subset of elderly patients with prohibitive operative risk.
- Percutaneous coronary intervention may be a beneficial alternative for this high-risk subgroup to stabilize preoperative conditions.
Abstract:
Excellent late survival is expected after coronary artery bypass (CABG) in patients aged ≥80 years, but immediate postoperative mortality can be rather high. This study was planned to identify variables associated with very high operative risk in these fragile patients. This is a multicenter study including 2,246 patients aged ≥80 years who underwent isolated CABG at 68 Italian hospitals. The proportion of patients aged ≥80 years varied from 1.7 to 13.6 % (overall 5.6 %, p < 0.0001) in different institutions. The median logistic EuroSCORE varied from 6.2 to 31.7 % (overall median 11.3 %, p = <0.0001) in different institutions. Thirty-day mortality in patients aged ≥80 years correlated with that of patients aged <80 years (rho: 0.310, p = 0.027). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 6.5 %. Both logistic regression and CART showed that emergency procedure, low left ventricular ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamics, and use of nitrates infusion at arrival in the operating room were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. CART analysis showed that 30-day mortality among patients undergoing emergency CABG with unstable hemodynamic conditions was 32.60 % and it was 20.0 % in patients undergoing non-emergency operation with nitrates infusion at arrival in the operating room and left ventricular ejection fraction <30 %. The proportion and operative risk of patients aged ≥80 years and undergoing CABG significantly varied among institutions. Patients requiring emergency surgery, with unstable hemodynamic conditions, requiring nitrates infusion, and low ejection fraction have a prohibitive operative risk. This small proportion of patients may benefit from percutaneous coronary intervention in order to stabilize their preoperative conditions.
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