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Anthrax epizootic and migration: persistence or extinction.

Avner Friedman1, Abdul-Aziz Yakubu

  • 1Mathematical Bioscience Institute and Mathematics Department, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA. afriedman@math.osu.edu

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Mathematical modeling of anthrax epizootics reveals that reducing carcass ingestion may not decrease infected animal populations. However, increased environmental contamination from carcasses can lead to catastrophic extinction events.

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Area of Science:

  • Mathematical Biology
  • Ecology
  • Veterinary Epidemiology

Background:

  • Anthrax poses a significant threat to animal populations.
  • Understanding disease dynamics is crucial for effective wildlife management.
  • Previous models have not fully integrated environmental contamination and migration.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To extend a mathematical model of anthrax epizootics.
  • To investigate the impact of transmission, carcass ingestion, environmental contamination, and migration on animal population persistence.
  • To determine conditions for anthrax enzootic regions and analyze extinction risks.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized an extended deterministic mathematical model.
  • Calculated the basic reproduction number (R(0)) with and without migration.
  • Analyzed model parameters related to transmission, carcass dynamics, and migration.

Main Results:

  • Identified conditions for anthrax enzootic regions.
  • Demonstrated that reducing carcass ingestion does not always lower infected populations.
  • Showed that increased carcass-induced environmental contamination can cause population extinction.

Conclusions:

  • Carcass management strategies require careful consideration of environmental contamination.
  • Environmental contamination is a critical factor in anthrax epizootic severity.
  • Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into wildlife disease persistence and extinction.