Temperature-dependent dynamics and allee effect thresholds mediate fourfold cusp stability in biological control of...

Climate change is reshaping the distribution of invasive vector species, intensifying the risk of vector-borne diseases in previously unaffected regions. Sustainable management of these vectors increasingly relies on biological control agents, which offer an environmentally friendly alternative to chemical interventions. However, the success of biological control is constrained by ecological thresholds such as the Allee effect, where small introduced populations of control agents may fail to establish, particularly under changing temperature conditions. In this study, we examine a mathematical model that captures competition between invasive vectors and biological control agents. The model incorporates temperature-dependent functional responses and weak Allee effects to reflect the dual pressures of climate variability and population-level constraints. Our one-parameter bifurcation analysis reveals that these combined drivers promote multistability, leading to sudden regime shifts between outcomes of successful vector suppression, vector outbreaks, coexistence, or population collapse. Additionally, four coexisting stable equilibria arises from a cusp-induced wedge region in a two-parameter bifurcation analysis, a phenomenon not previously observed in vector-borne population dynamics. This introduces a higher level of dynamical complexity, bridging temperature-dependent biological rates and nonlinear population feedback, with potential implications for species bio-control under climate change. These findings also suggest that climate change not only facilitates vector spread but also complicates biological control outcomes, making them highly sensitive to initial population densities, population-level (or Allee effect) constraints and temperature regimes. This work demonstrates the importance of considering both climatic and population-level influences when planning biological control programs, particularly in safeguarding public health against emerging vector-borne threats.