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Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order
Kamarul Imran Musa1, Wan Nor Arifin1, Mohd Hafiz Mohd2
1School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, USM, Kubang Kerian, Kelantan 16150, Malaysia.
Summary
Malaysia's movement control orders (MCO) effectively curbed COVID-19 spread, indicated by a decreasing time-varying reproduction number (Rt). The Rt values remained below one, signifying controlled transmission throughout the MCO periods.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated stringent public health interventions globally.
- Malaysia implemented a nationwide Movement Control Order (MCO) from March 18 to May 3, 2020, in four phases to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the impact of Malaysia's MCO on COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
- To analyze the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) during the MCO periods.
Main Methods:
- Utilized COVID-19 data from Johns Hopkins University.
- Employed the EpiEstim package to estimate the time-varying reproduction number (Rt).
- Analyzed epidemic curves and Rt values, comparing mean Rt at days 1, 5, and 10 across MCO phases.
Main Results:
- The reproduction number (Rt) peaked around day 43, preceding MCO 1.
- Mean Rt values across MCO phases ranged from 0.665 to 1.147.
- Average Rt decreased during MCO 1 and MCO 2, stabilizing below one despite case spikes during relaxation phases.
Conclusions:
- The MCO strategy in Malaysia was effective in controlling COVID-19 spread.
- The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) served as a reliable indicator of transmission control.
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