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The federal Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA): a construction and validation study
Christopher T Lowenkamp1, James L Johnson, Alexander M Holsinger
1Office of Probation and Pretrial Services, Administrative Office of the United States Courts, Washington, DC 20544, USA.
Psychological Services
|November 15, 2012
Summary
This study developed a new offender risk assessment tool for U.S. probation officers. The validated instrument reliably predicts rearrest and shows high interrater agreement, improving community supervision.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Forensic Psychology
- Criminal Justice
Background:
- Offender assessment is crucial for effective community supervision.
- Existing tools may require updates to enhance predictive accuracy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a 4th-generation risk assessment instrument for U.S. probation.
- To evaluate the predictive validity and interrater agreement of the new instrument.
Main Methods:
- Development using a large administrative dataset.
- Prospective validation with officer-completed assessments.
- Interrater agreement testing via case vignettes.
Main Results:
- The assessment instrument reliably predicted rearrest.
- High interrater agreement was observed among trained officers.
- Both administrative data and officer-completed assessments yielded reliable predictions.
Conclusions:
- The 4th-generation risk assessment instrument is a valid and reliable tool for U.S. probation.
- The findings support its use in enhancing community supervision effectiveness.
- Recommendations for future research and policy are provided.
