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Implementation uncertainty when using recreational hunting to manage carnivores
Richard Bischof1, Erlend B Nilsen, Henrik Brøseth
1Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway ; Norwegian Institute for Nature Research NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway.
The Journal of Applied Ecology
|December 1, 2012
Summary
Wildlife managers must account for hunter performance uncertainty. Survival analysis of harvest data reveals significant variation in quota fulfillment, impacting wildlife management strategies.
Area of Science:
- Wildlife ecology and management
- Conservation biology
- Quantitative ecology
Background:
- Wildlife managers utilize hunters for population control, particularly for predators and ungulates.
- Hunter performance in meeting set quotas is not guaranteed, introducing implementation uncertainty into management.
- Resource management models need to incorporate this uncertainty for accurate goal setting.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate hunter performance in achieving harvest goals using a survival analysis framework.
- To analyze long-term harvest data from large carnivore management systems in Estonia, Latvia, and Norway.
- To assess the variability and influencing factors of hunter quota fulfillment.
Main Methods:
- Employed a survival analysis framework to analyze harvest data.
- Utilized long-term data from management systems for brown bear, grey wolf, Eurasian lynx, and wolverine.
- Measured 'survival time' as the time to fill a quota slot to generate survivor curves and hazards.
Main Results:
- Substantial variation in hunter quota-filling performance observed across species and countries (e.g., 40% for wolverine in Norway to nearly 100% for lynx in Latvia).
- Significant seasonal and regional variations in performance were detected within country-species pairs.
- A positive relationship was found between the potential to fill a quota and the relative availability of wolverine and lynx in Norway.
Conclusions:
- The significant deviation from harvest goals highlights the critical need to incorporate implementation uncertainty into wildlife management models and decision-making.
- Survival analysis provides a valuable tool for managers to estimate resource user performance against harvest objectives.
- Findings are timely for the increasing adoption of management strategy evaluation (MSE) in terrestrial wildlife management.
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