Can we predict 4-year graduation in podiatric medical school using admission data?

This study examined the predictive ability of educational background and demographic variables, available at the admission stage, to identify applicants who will graduate in 4 years from podiatric medical school.

A logistic regression model was used to identify two predictors of 4-year graduation: age at matriculation and total Medical College Admission Test score. The model was cross-validated using a second independent sample from the same population. Cross-validation gives greater confidence that the results could be more generally applied.

Total Medical College Admission Test score was the strongest predictor of 4-year graduation, with age at matriculation being a statistically significant but weaker predictor.

Despite the model's capacity to predict 4-year graduation better than random assignment, a sufficient amount of error in prediction remained, suggesting that important predictors are missing from the model. Furthermore, the high rate of false-positives makes it inappropriate to use age and Medical College Admission Test score as admission screens in an attempt to eliminate attrition by not accepting at-risk students.