Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 15, 2026
05:37
An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
The quantitative estimation of IT-related risk probabilities
1herrmann@herrmann-ehrlich.de
Summary
Estimating information technology (IT) risks is challenging for most people. While experience helps older professionals utilize group insights, personal experience with a risk can lead to overestimation, unlike in other fields.
Area of Science:
- Information Technology
- Risk Management
- Human-Computer Interaction
Background:
- Risk estimation is crucial for software management and decision-making.
- The accuracy of human IT risk estimation is not well understood.
- Understanding factors influencing risk perception is vital for effective IT project management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the accuracy of human IT risk probability estimation.
- To investigate the influence of various factors on risk estimation quality.
- To compare individual estimation with group-informed estimates (Delphi method).
Main Methods:
- An experiment involving 36 participants estimating IT-related risk probabilities.
- Analysis of factors including age, work experience, safety awareness, prior risk experience, and probability magnitude.
- Evaluation of the impact of shared estimates (Delphi method) on individual estimations.
Main Results:
- IT risk probabilities are generally difficult to estimate accurately.
- Age and computing experience did not significantly impact estimation accuracy, but older participants better leveraged group data.
- Higher safety awareness correlated with risk overestimation but improved rank estimation; personal risk experience led to overestimation.
Conclusions:
- Human IT risk estimation is inherently difficult and prone to biases.
- Experience influences the utilization of collective knowledge, but personal experience can skew probability assessments.
- Further research is needed to improve the reliability of IT risk assessments in practice.
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