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Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors
Joost R Santos1, Larissa May, Amine El Haimar
1Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, The George Washington University, 1776 G Street NW, Suite 101, Washington, DC, USA.
Epidemics cause severe economic and productivity losses through workforce absenteeism. Recovery strategies must balance economic impact with operational capacity, especially in critical sectors like healthcare.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Economics
- Public Health
Background:
- Epidemics pose significant, prolonged threats to populations and economies.
- Workforce absenteeism during epidemics creates interdependent economic and productivity risks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a dynamic input-output model for quantifying sector-disaggregated economic losses from epidemic-induced workforce disruptions.
- To analyze the economic and inoperability impacts of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the National Capital Region (NCR).
Main Methods:
- Developed a dynamic input-output model to assess economic losses and inoperability across sectors.
- Conducted an ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the NCR.
- Simulated a mild pandemic scenario to compare economic loss and inoperability metrics.
Main Results:
- Economic loss metric highlighted sectors with high GDP contribution (e.g., federal government enterprises).
- Inoperability metric identified critical sectors involved in epidemic management (e.g., hospitals).
- Distinct sector rankings emerged based on the chosen metric.
Conclusions:
- Sector prioritization for recovery requires balancing economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives.
- The proposed methodology is adaptable for analyzing epidemic impacts in different regions.
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