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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Solid cancer mortality in the techa river cohort (1950-2007)
S J Schonfeld1, L Y Krestinina, S Epifanova
1Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, USA. schonfelds@fellows.iarc.fr
Radiation Research
|January 8, 2013
Summary
This study found a link between protracted radiation exposure from Techa River contamination and increased solid cancer mortality. Approximately 2% of solid cancer deaths were associated with this long-term, low-dose radiation exposure.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Radiation Epidemiology
- Nuclear Safety
Background:
- Cancer risk from ionizing radiation is well-established at high doses but less certain at low doses and low dose rates.
- Populations exposed to environmental radioactive contamination present unique challenges for risk assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the dose-response relationship for solid cancer mortality in a population exposed to protracted, low-dose radiation.
- To quantify the cancer risk associated with environmental radioactive contamination from the Techa River.
Main Methods:
- Cohort study of 29,730 individuals living along the Techa River (1950-1960).
- Utilized individualized doses from the Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS 2009).
- Employed Poisson regression to estimate excess relative risks (ERRs) for solid cancer mortality.
Main Results:
- Observed 2,303 solid cancer deaths between 1950 and 2007.
- Estimated a linear ERR/Gy of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.04-1.27), indicating increased risk (P=0.03).
- Approximately 2% of solid cancer deaths were attributed to radiation exposure.
Conclusions:
- Protracted radiation exposure from Techa River contamination is associated with increased solid cancer mortality.
- Results support understanding health risks from whole-body radiation exposure following environmental contamination incidents.
- Challenges remain in quantifying dose-response relationships at low doses, reflected by a wide confidence interval.
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