Pharmaceutical R&D performance by firm size: approval success rates and economic returns

The R&D productivity of pharmaceutical firms has become an increasingly significant concern of industry, regulators, and policymakers. To address an important aspect of R&D performance, public and private data sources were used to estimate clinical phase transition and clinical approval probabilities for the pipelines of the 50 largest pharmaceutical firms (by sales) by 3 firms size groups (top 10 firms, top 11-20 firms, and top 21-50 firms). For self-originated compounds, the clinical approval success rates were 14.3%, 16.4%, and 18.4% for top 10 firms, top 11-20 firms, and top 21-50 firms, respectively. The results showing higher success rates for smaller firms were largely driven by outcomes for the small-molecule drugs. Adjustments for the relatively small differences in therapeutic class distributions across the firm size groups showed that the success rate for small-molecule self-originated drugs was 6% below average for top 10 firms and 17% above average for top 21-50 firms. Although success rates for small firms were higher, this advantage was offset to some degree by lower returns on approved drugs, suggesting different strategic objectives with regard to risk and reward by firm size.