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Related Concept Videos

Randomized Experiments01:13

Randomized Experiments

The randomization process involves assigning study participants randomly to experimental or control groups based on their probability of being equally assigned. Randomization is meant to eliminate selection bias and balance known and unknown confounding factors so that the control group is similar to the treatment group as much as possible. A computer program and a random number generator can be used to assign participants to groups in a way that minimizes bias.
Simple randomization
Simple...
Random Error01:04

Random Error

Random or indeterminate errors originate from various uncontrollable variables, such as variations in environmental conditions, instrument imperfections, or the inherent variability of the phenomena being measured. Usually, these errors cannot be predicted, estimated, or characterized because their direction and magnitude often vary in magnitude and direction even during consecutive measurements. As a result, they are difficult to eliminate. However, the aggregate effect of these errors can be...
Random Variables01:09

Random Variables

A random variable is a single numerical value that indicates the outcome of a procedure. The concept of random variables is fundamental to the probability theory and was introduced by a Russian mathematician, Pafnuty Chebyshev, in the mid-nineteenth century.
Uppercase letters such as X or Y denote a random variable. Lowercase letters like x or y denote the value of a random variable. If X is a random variable, then X is written in words, and x is given as a number.
For example, let X = the...
Cause and Effect01:53

Cause and Effect

While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
Bias01:22

Bias

Bias refers to any tendency that prevents a question from being considered unprejudiced. In research, bias occurs when one outcome or answer is selected or encouraged over others in sampling or testing. Bias can occur during any research phase, including study design, data collection, analysis, and publication.
In statistics, a sampling bias is created when a sample is collected from a population, and some members of the population are not as likely to be chosen as others (remember, each member...
Factors Affecting Perception01:25

Factors Affecting Perception

Perception is influenced by perceptual set, context, motivation, and emotion. Perceptual set, or perceptual expectancy, refers to the tendency to perceive things in a particular way, influenced by previous experiences and expectations. This phenomenon affects the interpretation of stimuli, creating a set of mental tendencies and assumptions that impact sensory perceptions of sound, taste, touch, and sight.
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A Psychophysics Paradigm for the Collection and Analysis of Similarity Judgments
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Relatively random: context effects on perceived randomness and predicted outcomes.

William J Matthews1

  • 1University of Essex.

Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition
|January 30, 2013
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Context significantly impacts how people perceive random sequences. Judgments about randomness and the gambler's fallacy are influenced by prior experiences with similar sequences, affecting predictions.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • People often struggle to accurately assess sequences of chance outcomes.
  • The gambler's fallacy, the belief that a streak of outcomes will be followed by its opposite, is a common cognitive bias.
  • Understanding how context influences these judgments is crucial for cognitive and economic theories.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the influence of contextual information on judgments of random sequences.
  • To examine how contrast effects shape perceptions of randomness and predictions.
  • To explore the implications for theories of sequence judgment and individual differences.

Main Methods:

  • Experiment 1: Participants judged sequences as random or human-generated, varying alternation rates within contexts.
  • Experiment 2: Participants predicted the next outcome after a streak, with prior exposure to varying streak lengths.
  • Statistical analysis of judgment and prediction data in relation to sequence characteristics and context.

Main Results:

  • Sequences with lower alternation rates were perceived as more likely to be human-generated.
  • Context-dependent contrast effects were observed: moderate alternation rates were judged differently based on surrounding sequences.
  • Predictions of outcome continuation after a streak were influenced by the length of previously encountered streaks.

Conclusions:

  • Contextual contrast effects play a significant role in judging randomness and predicting sequences.
  • These findings support theories emphasizing the importance of experiential learning in sequence perception.
  • The study links sequence judgment models to broader psychophysical and economic judgment frameworks, offering insights into individual differences.