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Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing
Jian Liu1, Bin Wang, Mark A Cane
1Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China. jliu@njnu.edu.cn
Nature
|February 1, 2013
Summary
Global warming impacts precipitation differently based on its cause. Solar radiation warming strengthens Pacific temperature gradients and increases rainfall, unlike greenhouse gas warming, which weakens gradients and reduces rainfall.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Physics
- Paleoclimatology
Background:
- Global warming alters precipitation patterns, with debated regional changes.
- Sea-surface temperature gradients in the tropical Pacific influence global rainfall.
- Past solar warming increased Pacific gradients, while models show greenhouse warming weakens them.
Purpose of the Study:
- Reconcile conflicting findings on Pacific sea-surface temperature gradients during past and future warming.
- Investigate the differing impacts of solar radiation versus greenhouse gas forcing on climate.
- Explain discrepancies in precipitation patterns between the Medieval Warm Period and late 20th century.
Main Methods:
- Utilized climate model simulations to analyze tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature gradients.
- Compared climate responses to warming from increased solar radiation versus increased greenhouse gas forcing.
- Examined the global tropospheric energy budget, balancing latent heat release and radiative cooling.
Main Results:
- Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature gradients increase with solar radiation warming and decrease with greenhouse gas forcing.
- Greenhouse gas warming results in less rainfall, particularly over tropical land, compared to solar warming for the same global temperature rise.
- This explains why the late 20th century was warmer but received less precipitation than the Medieval Warm Period in model simulations.
Conclusions:
- Warming due to greenhouse gases creates a distinct climate signature compared to solar radiation warming.
- The differing effects on tropospheric energy budgets explain the observed precipitation differences.
- Understanding these distinctions is crucial for accurate climate change projections and impact assessments.
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