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Updated: May 14, 2026
12:44
Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Low-probability flood risk modeling for New York City
Jeroen C J H Aerts1, Ning Lin, Wouter Botzen
1Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Summary
New York City faces significant hurricane flood risk, with annual building damages estimated between $59-$129 million. A 1/500-year storm surge could cause $5-$11 billion in damages, with Brooklyn and Queens being most vulnerable.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Impact
- Urban Planning
Background:
- New York City (NYC) is highly susceptible to coastal flooding from nor'easter storms and hurricanes.
- Previous flood damage assessments in NYC relied on limited storm event data.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012) highlighted NYC's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the comprehensive distribution of hurricane flood risk in NYC.
- To model potential flood damage using a wide range of storm scenarios and surge heights.
- To provide a more complete understanding of low-probability/high-impact flood hazards.
Main Methods:
- Developed a flood damage model incorporating diverse storm events and surge levels.
- Constructed exceedance probability-loss curves under varying damage severity assumptions.
- Analyzed flood risk across NYC's five boroughs, identifying vulnerable areas.
Main Results:
- Estimated annual flood damage to NYC buildings ranges from US$59 to US$129 million.
- A 1/100-year storm surge could inflict US$2-5 billion in damages; a 1/500-year surge, US$5-11 billion.
- Brooklyn and Queens were identified as the most flood-vulnerable boroughs.
Conclusions:
- The study quantifies a broad spectrum of hurricane flood risk for NYC.
- Identified key uncertainties in flood depth interpolation, damage curves, and hurricane characteristics.
- Findings underscore the need for robust flood mitigation strategies in vulnerable urban coastal areas.
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