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The trajectory of the target probability effect.

Nicholas Hon¹, Melvin J Yap, Syaheed B Jabar

¹Department of Psychology, National University of Singapore, 9 Arts Link, Singapore 117570, Singapore. psyhonn@nus.edu.sg

Attention, Perception & Psychophysics

|February 14, 2013

Summary

Detection times for low-probability targets slow down as an experiment progresses, increasing the target probability effect. This finding challenges existing theories on detection performance.

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Area of Science:

Cognitive Psychology
Human Performance
Experimental Psychology

Background:

The target probability effect demonstrates that lower probability targets are detected more slowly than higher probability targets, even with high accuracy.
Previous research has primarily focused on the existence of this effect, with less attention paid to its temporal dynamics within an experiment.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate how the target probability effect on detection times evolves throughout an experimental session.
To determine whether changes in detection times for low- or high-probability targets drive the effect's development.

Main Methods:

Conducted two detection experiments varying target probability ratios.
Utilized block segment analysis and linear mixed-effects modeling to analyze detection times.
Examined performance trajectories for both low- and high-probability targets across trial blocks.

Main Results:

The magnitude of the target probability effect significantly increases as participants progress through experimental blocks.
This increase is primarily driven by a slowing detection time for low-probability targets over the course of a block.
Detection times for high-probability targets remained relatively consistent throughout the experimental blocks.

Conclusions:

The target probability effect is not static but dynamically develops within an experiment, largely due to accumulating costs associated with low-probability targets.
Findings suggest that models of the target probability effect should account for temporal changes and the specific role of low-probability target processing.
The invariance of high-probability target performance challenges theories positing high-probability targets as the sole drivers of the observed effect.