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Updated: May 13, 2026
13:04
Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
Published on: September 19, 2012
Predictable or not? Individuals' risk decisions do not necessarily predict their next ones
Kin Fai Ellick Wong1, Cecilia Cheng
1Department of Management, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Plos One
|February 26, 2013
Summary
People have significant freedom in decision-making, especially when choices involve potential gains. Even when choices involve losses, consistency in risk-taking behavior remains very low, indicating substantial personal choice.
Area of Science:
- Decision-making research
- Cognitive psychology
- Behavioral economics
Background:
- Understanding the extent of free will in decision-making is a fundamental question.
- Previous research has explored choice consistency, but findings vary.
- Assessing predictability in repeated risk-taking decisions is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the consistency of risk choices in repeated decisions.
- To determine if framing (gain vs. loss) influences choice predictability.
- To evaluate the degree of freedom individuals have in making choices.
Main Methods:
- Two experiments were conducted involving participants making repeated risk decisions.
- Experiment 1: Decisions framed in terms of potential gains.
- Experiment 2: Decisions framed in terms of potential losses.
Main Results:
- In gain-framed scenarios, choice predictability was negligible (R(2)<.02).
- In loss-framed scenarios, a statistically significant but very low predictability was observed (R(2)<.07).
- Results indicate minimal consistency in repeated risk choices across both framing conditions.
Conclusions:
- Individuals possess a substantial degree of freedom in their choices, particularly when potential gains are involved.
- Even with negative framing (losses), choice consistency remains low, supporting the notion of significant volitional control.
- The findings suggest that personal choice plays a dominant role in risk-taking behavior.
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