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Simulating Temperature in a Soil Incubation Experiment
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Published on: October 28, 2022

Does the terrestrial biosphere have planetary tipping points?

Barry W Brook1, Erle C Ellis, Michael P Perring

  • 1Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia. barry.brook@adelaide.edu.au

Trends in Ecology & Evolution
|March 5, 2013
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Planetary scale tipping points in the terrestrial biosphere are unlikely. Global biotic changes are gradual due to spatial heterogeneity, not abrupt shifts, making global tipping points unfeasible.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Global Change Biology
  • Biosphere Science

Background:

  • Ecological tipping points describe radical, potentially irreversible system shifts.
  • Human drivers are known to cause regime shifts at local and regional scales.
  • The concept of planetary-scale tipping points in the terrestrial biosphere is increasingly discussed but lacks confirmation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the mechanisms and drivers of potential planetary-scale tipping points in the terrestrial biosphere.
  • To determine if abrupt, irreversible shifts are expected at the global scale.

Main Methods:

  • Evaluation of potential mechanisms driving biosphere changes.
  • Analysis of spatial heterogeneity in drivers and ecological responses.
  • Assessment of continental interconnectivity in the terrestrial biosphere.

Main Results:

  • Spatial heterogeneity in drivers and responses likely leads to gradual global changes.
  • Lack of strong continental interconnectivity suggests smooth transitions rather than sharp tipping points.
  • Marked tipping patterns are not expected at the planetary scale for the terrestrial biosphere.

Conclusions:

  • Planetary-scale tipping points in the terrestrial biosphere are probably unfeasible.
  • Identifying critical thresholds along global environmental gradients is likely impractical.
  • Characterizing global biotic change using single aggregate metrics is inappropriate.