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Area of Science:

  • Paleoclimatology
  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • Pleistocene and Holocene epochs shaped ecosystems and human evolution under varying carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.
  • The Holocene, often seen as stable, was naturally progressing towards a glacial phase before anthropogenic CO2 emissions altered this trajectory.
  • Low CO2 conditions historically supported specific flora and fauna, defined here as low-CO2 dependents.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the impact of rising atmospheric CO2 on ecosystems, particularly African savannas, where Homo sapiens evolved.
  • To highlight the threat to biodiversity adapted to open ecosystems due to CO2-driven woody encroachment and reforestation.
  • To propose integrating climate-fitness tests with prehistoric analogues for rewilding initiatives.

Main Methods:

  • Comparative analysis of Pleistocene and Holocene climate conditions and their ecological impacts.
  • Assessment of CO2-driven vegetation changes, specifically woody encroachment in African savannas.
  • Review of evolutionary pressures on Homo sapiens and other large mammals during different CO2 regimes.

Main Results:

  • Anthropogenic CO2 emissions have reversed the natural trend towards glaciation, preventing a return to cyclic glacial climates for millennia.
  • Rising CO2 concentrations exceed the adaptive capacities of many species and ecosystems, accelerating global warming.
  • African savannas, historically maintained by fire and carbon scarcity, are experiencing significant woody encroachment due to elevated CO2.

Conclusions:

  • The current Holocene baseline is transient; conservation and agriculture must adapt to a dynamic, CO2-driven future.
  • Rewilding efforts need to incorporate climate-fitness tests anticipating future CO2 trajectories.
  • Systemic policy reforms and local interventions are crucial to address biodiversity loss and ecosystem shifts caused by rapid climate change.