The role of time and risk preferences in smoking inequalities: a population-based study

Heterogeneity in time and risk preferences has been proposed as one of the mechanisms involved in the educational gradient in smoking, but this mechanism has scarcely been explored empirically. Subjective scales were introduced in the 2008 French National Health, Health Care and Insurance Survey in order to elicit measures of time and risk preferences for a representative sample of 5188 men and 5684 women. Men and women were treated separately. First, logistic regressions were used to test the associations between preferences and education and between preferences and smoking. Second, nested logistic models were built to investigate the mediating role of preferences in the educational gradient in smoking, with an econometric treatment of the rescaling problem. Preference for the present and risk loving were found to be: inversely related to educational level; strongly related to each other, and; strongly associated to current smoking, even after adjustment for educational level. There was a weakening of the educational gradient after the control for preferences, which supports the role of these two preferences as partial mediators in the educational gradient in smoking. Among men, time preference was more strongly associated with smoking than risk aversion, while the reverse was found for women. We provide convincing evidence in favour of the mediating role of time preference and risk aversion in educational inequalities in smoking and highlight the connection between those two dimensions. Gender patterns are discussed and potential implications in terms of designing targeted anti-tobacco programmes are delineated.