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Updated: May 13, 2026

Assessment of Vascular Function in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease
Published on: June 16, 2014
Association of BP variability with mortality among African Americans with CKD
Ciaran J McMullan1, George L Bakris, Robert A Phillips
1Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA. cmcmullan1@partners.org
Insights
Systolic blood pressure visit-to-visit variability (SBV) is linked to increased mortality in African Americans with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Higher SBV independently predicts greater overall and cardiovascular mortality in this population.
Area of Science:
- Nephrology
- Cardiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Systolic blood pressure visit-to-visit variability (SBV) is a potential risk factor for adverse outcomes.
- Limited research exists on SBV associations in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).
- The relationship between SBV and CKD progression or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) remains unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between SBV and mortality in patients with CKD.
- To examine the link between SBV and cardiovascular events.
- To assess the relationship of SBV with renal events in the African American Study of Kidney Disease (AASK) trial.
Main Methods:
- Prospective observational study of 908 participants in the AASK trial.
- Systolic blood pressure variability (SBV) calculated as the standard deviation of systolic pressure from five visits post-randomization.
- Proportional hazards regression used to assess associations with mortality and composite endpoints, adjusting for confounders.
Main Results:
- Increased SBV was significantly associated with higher overall mortality (adjusted HR, 2.82; 1.14-6.95).
- Greater SBV also correlated with increased cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR, 4.91; 1.12-21.50).
- SBV showed associations with composite cardiovascular and renal endpoints in unadjusted analyses, but not after adjustment.
Conclusions:
- In African Americans with CKD, SBV is a strong predictor of overall mortality.
- SBV is independently associated with cardiovascular mortality in this patient group.
- These findings highlight the clinical importance of monitoring SBV in CKD patients.
Background And Objectives:
Increased systolic BP visit-to-visit variability (SBV) may be associated with higher overall mortality and cardiovascular events. However, few studies have examined these associations in patients with CKD, and the relation of SBV with CKD progression and ESRD has not been shown. This study analyzed the association of SBV with overall mortality, cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular events, and renal events among individuals enrolled in the African American Study of Kidney Disease (AASK) trial.
Design, Setting, Participants, & Measurements:
This was a prospective observational study of 908 participants during the trial phase of the AASK study, with at least 1 year of BP measurements available and followed for 3-6.4 years. SBV was calculated as the SD of the systolic pressure from five visits occurring 3-12 months after randomization. The association of SBV with risk of overall mortality, cardiovascular mortality, a composite of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events, and a composite of renal events was assessed using proportional hazards regression and adjusting for multiple potential confounders.
Results:
Greater SBV was associated with higher overall mortality. The adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 2.82 (1.14-6.95) comparing the highest with lowest tertile of SBV. A similar comparison revealed that greater SBV was also associated with cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.91; 1.12-21.50). SBV was associated with both the cardiovascular renal composite endpoints in unadjusted but not adjusted analyses.
Conclusions:
In African Americans with CKD, SBV is strongly and independently associated with overall and cardiovascular mortality.
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